Southern Centre for Inequality Studies

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Working papers

This set of papers presents new research ideas and findings from ground-breaking research on fiscal policy in South Africa, with strong connections to Southern Africa and large middle-income democracies in the global South. Drawing on analytical capabilities in macro-fiscal policy, public economics, and public financial management, they aim to present authoritative, policy-relevant, and accessible evidence to support public deliberation and engagement among government, social partners, and civil society.

Public Economy Project
Policy Brief | Budget 2025 Preview: Pressures and tensions along the austerity road to fiscal sustainability

Authors: Michael Sachs, Rashaad Amra, Thokozile Madonko and Owen Willcox

 

SCIS Working Paper |  Number 67 | The Effects of Public Investment in the Green and Care Economies and Public Infrastructure in South Africa

Author: Özlem Onaran and Cem Oyvat | 2024

This paper argues that a comprehensive mix of policy tools is essential to catalyse the urgent public investment required to address South Africa's growth, inequality, care, and climate change crises. According to the National Treasury, from 2010 to 2019, South Africa's growth averaged only 1.75% annually, a figure further reduced when factoring in the COVID-19-impacted years of 2020 and 2021.

Policy Note | Number 65 | Macro Fiscal Review: Reflections on public finances ahead of the 2024 Budget Review 
Authors: Rashaad Amra, Michael Sachs, Owen Willcox, and Thokozile Madonko | February 2024
This policy note, published before the 2024 Budget Review tabling, reviews global and domestic economic developments and fiscal developments since the 2023 Budget Review and Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) were tabled.

SCIS Working Paper | Number 64 | The Role of Fiscal Think Tanks in Fiscal Policy: Global patterns and lessons for South Africa

Author/s: Philipp Krause | 2024

This paper looks at fiscal policy more broadly through the institutions of policy-making rather than more narrowly through the institutions of budgeting. It considers who shares the fiscal policy space with the ministry of finance and how the fiscal policy agenda is set.

SCIS Working Paper | Number 62 | Financial directions and budget trends in government healthcare

Authors: Michael Sachs, Fareed Abdullah, Thokozile Madonko, Kim Jonas, Nevilene Slingers and Tanaka Zvawada | 2023

This working paper provides evidence and analysis that can assist in taking forward the agenda of the Presidential Health Compact. It does so by reviewing the financial performance of the government healthcare system over the last decade.

SCIS Working Paper | Number 60 | Austerity Without Consolidation: Fiscal Policy and Spending Choices in Budget 2023 

Authors: Michael Sachs, Rashaad Amra, Thokozile Madonko, and Owen Willcox | June 2023

This report shows that continuous austerity over the last decade has eroded the quality and value of public services on which the majority of South Africans rely. With spending choices resulting in pay increases for government employees held well below the rate of inflation, and across-the-board spending reductions cutting deeply into healthcare, basic education, criminal justice, and social services.

SCIS Working Paper | Number 39 | Public services, government employment and the budget

Authors: Michael Sachs, Arabo K. Ewinyu, Olwethu Shedi | October 2022

This report presents independent analysis using publicly available data on budgets, audited spending outcomes, and government plans for future expenditure.

Fiscal Dimensions of South Africa's Crisis

Author: Michael Sachs

SCIS Working Paper | Number 15
March 2021

How did South Africa arrive at the fiscal crisis it currently faces? In search of answers, this paper reviews fiscal data and policy development over the last two decades. The structure of public spending and the dynamics of debt accumulation are looked at in some detail, but less attention is given to taxation.

The paper considers monetary policy only to the extent that it might (or might not) ease fiscal constraints. Macroeconomic trends are looked at insofar as they frame fiscal choices, but the broader context of the South Africa’s crisis – rising unemployment and poverty, extreme and entrenched inequalities, economic stagnation rooted in deindustrialisation and financialisation, and the slow but inexorable disintegration of the Congress movement – is left in the background.

The author notes that while South Africa’s crisis is multidimensional, and a single lens such as fiscal policy would inevitably be limited. However, the belief is it can help illuminate a wider terrain of historical change.

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