South Africa bottom of the class for road safety? Here’s why this isn’t true

6 April 2021 - Lee Randall

In South Africa 26 out of every 100,000 people die on the roads – far higher than the global average of 18 per 100,000.

In an average year, 1.35 million people die on the world’s roads and another 50 million are seriously injured. Most (93%) of the deaths happen in low- and middle-income countries, and sub-Saharan Africa is the global hotspot in the road death pandemic. In South Africa 26 out of every 100,000 people die on the roads – far higher than the global average of 18 per 100,000.

My PhD research into bioethical aspects of minibus taxi crashes in Johannesburg pointed to some reasons for this. It also revealed certain strengths in the South African road safety landscape.

Zutobi.com, a driver education online platform in high income countries, recently ranked South Africa 56th out of 56 countries in a survey titled, “The world’s safest and most dangerous roads.” The next lowest-ranked countries were Thailand and the USA, while Norway ranked first (closely followed by Japan and Sweden). The results of this survey have received a lot of media attention.

But is South Africa really bottom of the class? Let’s unpack why not, because an accurate understanding of the problem is an important part of finding solutions.

We discovered that whale and dolphin brains produce lots of heat. Why it matters

8 April 2021 - Paul Manger

We have all heard the mantra that dolphins and whales are highly intelligent animals, on par with great apes and humans – But where does this concept come from?

We have all heard the mantra that dolphins and whales (cetaceans) are highly intelligent animals. Some claim they’re on par with great apes and humans – maybe even smarter. But where does this concept come from?

There are two lines of thought. Firstly, a range of cetacean behaviours are interpreted as displays of notable intelligence. Second, cetaceans have very large brains; several species have brains that weigh more than human brains. We have large brains, and it is the structure and activity within these large brains that determines our abilities to examine, analyse and manipulate the world in a very complex way. So it has been thought that any other animal that has a brain as large, or larger, must be using their brain for the same thing.

But this logic is based on a very specific assumption: that 1 gram of brain tissue has, on average, the same capacity to process information in the same way irrespective of the brain in which it is found. It is this assumption that I have questioned over the past 20 years and I have come to a very different conclusion.

In my most recent study, my colleagues and I have ascertained that the cetacean brain is indeed special. Not for intelligence, though: it is special because it produces a lot more heat than the brains of other mammals. Through our research we’ve concluded that the cetacean brain has a specialised thermogenic system. It helps the animal’s brain to produce enough heat to maintain a functional brain temperature, and we believe this will combat the loss of heat to the water. This is separate to the special way whales and dolphins keep their bodies warm.

Evidence suggests the neurothermogenic specialisation we describe evolved around 32 million years ago.

With this knowledge, scientists can better understand how important water temperature is to the survival of cetaceans. This, in turn, will allow us to understand what will happen to certain species of cetaceans during the inevitable rise in oceanic temperatures associated with anthropogenic-induced climate change.

It is quite possible that some species, such as those dependent on the polar ice, like narwhals and beluga whales, may become victims of global warming. This new understanding of cetaceans will allow us to direct our conservation efforts in the most appropriate way to secure the future of as many species of cetacean as possible.

Size and skill

Compared to humans – and indeed many other mammals – cetacean brains have a very small prefrontal cortex (that part involved in our higher mental/executive activities), a tiny hippocampus (responsible for memory formation/retrieval and spatial navigation), and many other features that are very different to other mammals.

This means we can conclude that the structure of the cetacean brain does not endow them with the “hardware” necessary for the production of behaviours that are more complex than those seen in many other animals, unlike humans.

So, if the cetacean brain is not large for intellectual purposes, why is it so big?

Cetacean brains became truly large around 32 million years ago, about 20 million years after they became fully aquatic mammals. At this time, there was a major cooling of global oceanic temperatures. This coincided with the loss of the shallow, warm, nutrient-rich, equatorial Tethys sea. These ancient cetaceans were faced with a quandary: adapt to this new, cold, open ocean environment, or become extinct.

The mammalian brain produces its own heat, independent of the body, to maintain a stable temperature of 37°C. Even a small drop in brain temperature leads to a reduction in neural activity. Cetaceans mostly live in oceanic waters; the mammalian body loses heat via conductive heat transfer to the water 90 times faster than to air at the same temperatures; and mammal brains need to be maintained at 37°C. Given these factors, I proposed that perhaps the environmental pressure of colder water occurring around 32 million years ago was the trigger for the evolution of the larger brain in cetaceans.

Inside the cetacean brain

To provide support to this idea, my colleagues and I examined the heat-producing system within the brains of cetaceans and their close relatives the artiodactyls – such as hippopotamuses, pigs, antelopes, buffaloes and giraffes.

We reasoned that this heat-producing system would have to use the process of non-shivering thermogenesis, a way to produce heat within cells rather than through muscular activity, as there are no muscles surrounding the brain. The most commonly studied part of the body that produces heat through non-shivering thermogenesis is brown fat. Brown fat cells can change their internal metabolic pathways so as to produce heat, warming up the body. This happens when mitochondria (organelles within the cell that produce energy) change their activity so that rather than producing adenosine triphosphate (ATP), for chemical energy in the cell, they produce heat. This is achieved by activating uncoupling proteins (UCPs).

In the cetacean brain we found that almost three times as many neurons contain these proteins compared to their terrestrial relatives. We also found that between 30 and 70% of glial cells contain UCPs in cetaceans, while in artiodactyls the glial cells did not contain UCPs in readily detectable amounts. Glial cells are the housekeepers of the brain: they maintain the right micro-environment to support active neuronal functioning.

We conclude that the cetacean brain has a specialised thermogenic system that emerged around 32 million years ago. This, we believe, will combat the loss of heat to the water – and help cetaceans to maintain a functional brain temperature.

A special brain

So, yes: the cetacean brain is special, as long believed. But this brain isn’t used for special intellectual functions and complex thoughts. Instead, it’s special because it produces a lot more heat than the brains of other mammals, and this is necessary for their survival in the colder aquatic environment they inhabit.

Paul Manger, Professor of Comparative and Evolutionary Neurobiology, University of the Witwatersrand.

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

More health research based on data from Africa will benefit the continent and the world

9 April 2021 - Michèle Ramsay

The global outbreak of the deadly Covid-19 pandemic and the race to bring an end to this scourge has thrust the role of genomics into the spotlight.

The global outbreak of the deadly Covid-19 pandemic and the race to bring an end to this scourge which has affected every segment of society has thrust the role of genomics into the spotlight.

From discovering and understanding the virus that causes Covid-19 to developing vaccines and detecting new mutations in the viral genome, the study of genomics has proven beyond doubt to be a potent tool. Scientists in South Africa and across the continent are using genomics-based surveillance to track the evolution of the virus in a local context, while the sequencing of hundreds of viral genomes has enabled studies of the Covid-19 strains in Africa.

What has become clear in the process is that far more home-grown genome sequencing is needed in Africa to address the wide range of diseases plaguing the continent.

Scientific discovery in the health sciences emerges from good data, based on carefully chosen participants, thoughtfully developed questionnaires and strategies for sample collection, and good governance structures for the responsible management of data and biological samples.

Genetic susceptibility alters the odds for developing common NCDs, but environmental factors and lifestyle choices are important contributors that can exacerbate or ameliorate individual risk. Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) are a metric developed to stratify individuals in a population according to the relative risk for developing specific diseases. The current clinical utility of PRSs is a matter of hot debate, but it is clear that their predictive ability is maximised for populations where the research and the target populations are most similar.

Africans therefore stand to gain little from PRSs developed in European populations, and research on African populations is vital if we are to reap the benefits of genomic medicine-informed approaches.

Why do we need African genomic and health data?

Africa is characterised by a large diversity of climate, culture, diet and exposure to pathogens, providing a natural backdrop for exploring the interactions between genetic variants and the environment. There is unique potential for discovery based on the high genetic diversity in African populations, which could lead to uncovering new disease pathways and identifying novel drug targets.

There are already several good examples emanating from a better understanding of African genetic variation. Specific genetic variants in the PCSK9 gene, which codes for a protein that regulates low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) levels, naturally lead to lower levels of LDL-C. These variants are more common in African populations, and a therapeutic approach was developed to mimic their action by treating people with high LDL-C levels to lower their risk of heart attacks and other lipid-related diseases. 

In another example, several mutations initially thought to cause hypertrophic cardiomyopathy were later found to be common variants in Africans; their disease-causing status was revised to benign, and the diagnosis rescinded for many patients.

Why is it important to share African data with the world?

The potential for discovery from African genomes is high, especially when coupled with detailed health data. Undoubtedly, when more people work on a dataset and more questions are explored, the more valuable the data become, and the higher the chance that participants can benefit from translational research. Large and complex datasets can be mined in many different ways, and analysing the data together with other datasets further increases the power to detect important but sometimes subtle effects.

We need to remain mindful of the potential for stigmatisation of recognisable and identifiable minority groups, and to protect personal identification, while on the other hand supporting the potential of translational research from bench to bedside. The availability of genomic data from five African populations released from as early as 2010 as part of the 1 000 Genomes Project is proof of principle that much good comes from making African data available for research.

The pioneering example of the H3Africa Consortium

The Human Heredity and Health in Africa (H3Africa) Consortium was initiated in 2012 to explore genomic and environmental contributions to health and disease among Africans and to strengthen genomic research capabilities on the continent. With over 40 research projects ranging from NCDs, communicable diseases and bioinformatics to ethical, legal and social issues, the consortium has published widely and developed genomic research resources. These include openly shared policies and guidelines on genomic research in Africa, and databases and biobanks to enable further research.

Is there a role for genomic medicine-informed approaches in Africa?

It is vital for research to inform innovative approaches to healthcare in African settings, something that is only possible through building research infrastructure, large longitudinal African cohorts, big data and data linkage programmes and a skilled workforce.

Understanding genetic vulnerability for disease and key environmental interactions could form the bedrock of preventative medicine. Furthermore, knowledge of individual drug responses, safe and effective delivery doses, and overall efficacy of treatments in African populations could inform public health approaches and help to maximise scarce resources.

What are some of the critical enablers for genomic health research in South Africa?

• Enabling laws and regulations to support and promote participation in regional and global research, while balancing the protection of research participants and enabling future benefit sharing.

• More national investment in large research initiatives such as the Southern African Human Genome Programme and the South African Population Research Infrastructure Network (SAPRIN), an initiative supported by the Department of Science and Innovation (DSI) through the South African Research Infrastructure Roadmap (SARIR).

• Developing and expanding support for the disciplines of bioinformatics and genomic studies at tertiary institutions, and implementing sustainable educational programmes.

We have a duty to enable genomic research in Africa for the benefit of its peoples and the world. Not only is Africa the cradle of humankind, it is a hub for health researchers, and the trove of African genomes beckons. 

Michèle Ramsay is a Professor of Human Genetics, Director at the Sydney Brenner Institute for Molecular Bioscience at the University of the Witwatersrand and holder of the DSI-NRF Research Chair in Genomics and Bioinformatics of African Populations. She is the 2019 South African Women in Science Awards winner in the category of Distinguished Women Researchers: Natural (Physical and Life) and Engineering Sciences, and the winner of the 2020 Lifetime Award of the National Science and Technology Forum.

This article is republished from the Mail & Guardian under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

New research shows South Africa’s levy on sugar-sweetened drinks is having an impact

12 April 2021 - Karen Hofman

Three years ago South Africa introduced Africa’s first major tax on sugar-sweetened beverages based on grams of sugar.

Three years ago South Africa introduced Africa’s first major tax on sugar-sweetened beverages based on grams of sugar. The tax now stands at about 11% of the price per litre.

We assessed the impact in recently published research. We found that the health promotion levy coincided with large reductions in purchases of taxable beverages, in terms of both volume and sugar quantities. We didn’t find significant changes for non-taxable beverages.

This isn’t the first research to show positive outcomes from the levy. A national study one year after it was introduced found households in urban areas halved the volume of sugary beverages they bought, cutting their sugar intake by nearly a third. Similar results were found regionally in Soweto in Gauteng.

The new research is the first evaluate this particular tax design. At a national level, we measured changes in household purchases of taxable and non-taxable beverages in terms of volume, sugar and calories. We also assessed changes in the purchasing behaviour of households stratified by household socioeconomic status. We assessed changes between the period before the levy to after its announcement and through the first year of its implementation period.

Research shows that excess sugar, particularly in liquid form, is a major cause of obesity and is a risk factor for diseases like type 2 diabetes, hypertension, heart disease, many common cancers and tooth decay. Recognising this danger, the World Health Organisation (WHO) has recommended that individuals should consume no more than 10% of total calories from added sugar, and preferably less than 5%.

Carbonated sugary drinks play a major role in making these numbers hard to attain. A 250ml cooldrink contains upwards of 26g of sugar – more than half the daily recommended limit.

Sub-Saharan Africa faces a tidal wave of diet-related noncommunicable diseases, with rapidly rising intake of sugar-sweetened beverages and other ultra-processed foods. South Africa, in particular, has a heavy burden of these noncommunicable diseases.

While other countries in sub-Saharan Africa have levied sugar-sweetened beverage taxes, South Africa is the first country in the region to evaluate such a policy.

Our results clearly show positive changes that could offer useful public health gains across the region. The reductions in sugar from taxable beverage purchases suggest a potential role for sugar-based taxes more broadly.

To tax, or not to tax

More than 50 jurisdictions across the globe have used taxes to curb the consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages.

For example, in 2014, Mexico introduced a tax of one peso per litre on beverages containing added sugar. Research has shown that it resulted in a 6% reduction in purchased volume relative to pre-tax trends over the first year of the tax, and a 7.6% reduction over the first two years of the tax.

Tax policies in other countries such as the UK and several subnational jurisdictions in the US have also resulted in statistically significant reductions in purchases of sugar-sweetened beverages.

South Africa has led the continent firstly by introducing the tax, and secondly by making the levy about sugar content rather than volume.

Given that sugar-sweetened drinks contain variations in sugar levels, taxing them according to their sugar content is a more precise way of targeting the source of these products’ harm. It also gives beverage manufacturers an incentive to reduce the sugar content of their products. This strategy formed the basis of South Africa’s 2018 tax policy.

Unfinished business

South Africa’s levy showed that in 2018 the country was prepared to put the health of the public in first place.

But the government has failed to capitalise on these early gains, despite the evidence that’s been presented to it about the impact of the levy on consumption patterns. An example of this is that it has not raised the rate at which the tax is imposed.

Health experts had been lobbying for an increase to 20% – the levy recommended by the WHO. No country in the world has reached this benchmark. Nations are only getting part of the benefits in terms of preventing obesity. This matters to the future health of children, in particular. South Africa has seen a rise in childhood obesity rates since 1994. And some forecasts suggest that the country will have the 10th highest level of childhood obesity in the world by 2030, affecting over 4 million children aged 5 to 19 years.

The campaign to get the levy increased is based on the growing body of research showing that sugar is addictive, that it is harmful to people’s health and that it is overwhelming the country’s health system.

Earlier this year the government made it clear that it had no intention of raising the 11% after the subject was left out of the February budget.

Yet, the country is paying a heavy cost to treat type 2 diabetes and hypertension.

Government has the power to make healthy choices the easy choice. Healthy food like fresh fruit and vegetables is often not available or affordable for many living in rural or urban areas. People eat what is available and cheap.

The government can save lives and reduce the numbers of people who develop diseases by taking three very simple steps.

Firstly, it needs clear regulations.

Secondly, it needs preventative strategies.

Thirdly, it needs watertight policies for reducing consumption of unhealthy foods.

Increasing the health promotion levy, introducing mandatory front of package labelling and banning the marketing of unhealthy products to children should be at the very top of the priority list.

Karen Hofman, Professor and Programme Director, SA MRC Centre for Health Economics and Decision Science - PRICELESS SA (Priority Cost Effective Lessons in Systems Strengthening South Africa), University of the Witwatersrand. 

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Aim for the sky, but keep your feet on the ground

16 April 2021 - Nithaya Chetty

To fight poverty and promote equality, developing countries should pursue the highest levels of unfettered, open-ended scientific inquiry.

Ideas around the development of African countries have progressed significantly since the 1960s. In the initial stages of postcolonial Africa, development support was often handed out to dictators who channeled those resources into their own bank accounts. Today, more democratic governments have shifted their priorities to strengthening education, advancing scientific research, fostering innovation, and developing talent.

Yet the advancement of African societies is painfully slow. Science and technology can be powerful catalysts for change, but the dearth of qualified scientists and the low levels of research funding pose formidable barriers to overcome. To lower those barriers, African governments should support fundamental research without compromising on its standards. In doing so, they will build an environment that will strengthen economic development and mitigate the mass migration of people to foreign shores.

An all-too-common view—held by international institutions and by government agencies in Africa and elsewhere—is that for the foreseeable future, African countries should focus their efforts on education, rather than on research, by improving the mathematical literacy and other practical scientific skills of high-schoolers and undergraduates. The argument is that if we get the fundamentals right, we will eventually produce a critical mass of quality graduates who will go on to make important contributions to society. And when it comes to driving innovation, governments in the developing world, with their limited resources, are expected to invest mostly in applied research, with the scientific agenda set primarily by the quest to find solutions to the practical problems facing their populations.

It is obviously important that African countries prioritize education and support applied research. However, I argue that it would be a grave mistake to do that in the absence of an excellent fundamental research agenda. Unless African countries aim for the highest levels of scientific research excellence within a milieu of unfettered inquiry, the continent will continue to languish on the treadmill of poverty and inequality. By striving for open-ended, curiosity-driven research, we will be better placed to harness the benefits of education and to stimulate innovation. While being attentive to our problems on the ground, we must aim for the sky.

Astronomy in South Africa offers an enlightening example. The construction of the MeerKAT radio telescope—named after a beloved mammal from the Karoo—cost the South African government more than 5 billion South African rand ($334 million). A precursor to an even more ambitious project—the Square Kilometre Array—MeerKAT is the most sensitive telescope in a radio-frequency range that is important for cosmology and astronomy. Radio astronomy may appear to be far from everyday life—how does the the study of distant planets, stars, and galaxies put a roof over one’s head or a plate of food on the table? But we must keep in mind that an important part of research is to attract new generations into science.

In my view, astronomy is arguably the discipline that can best achieve this goal across cultures, geographical regions, and generations. Crucially, this field can create hope, whose importance in Africa can’t be underestimated. MeerKAT has energized science teachers, engaged the public, and educated hundreds of graduate students who have found employment either at home or in another African country. What is more, astronomy has exposed our best students to new cutting-edge problems in computing, communication, data science, mechanics, electronics, and optics, which all are applicable to other fields.

The response of researchers to the pandemic is one compelling demonstration of the tangible benefits of fundamental research for the real world. When COVID-19 hit South Africa, particle physicists at the University of the Witwatersrand (Wits) applied artificial intelligence and machine-learning methods to monitor and predict the evolution of the pandemic, providing valuable input to government policies that helped make life-saving decisions. Building on their successes in South Africa, those researchers are now helping other African countries.

So what can developing countries learn from this success? How can they tap the applied potential of fundamental research without diluting the rigor of academic degrees and without turning universities into technology centers that merely support industry? A promising approach is to expose students to the ideas of innovation during the course of their graduate degrees rather than after them. At Wits, we are piloting a dual degree program where selected doctoral students from different disciplines simultaneously complete an M.Sc. in innovation. While pursuing their Ph.D.’s, the students learn about entrepreneurship and work with mentors who transitioned ideas from fundamental inquiry to commercial success.

We are confident the program will demonstrate that fundamental inquiry and innovation aren’t mutually exclusive. If we educate bright, inspired students, it won’t matter whether they turn their attention to string theory or commercial devices—they will simply change our societies for the better.

Nithaya Chetty is Dean of Science at the University of the Witwatersrand, South Africa. He is a former president of the South African Institute of Physics. This article was first published in Physics. The original article is available here.

Precarious power tilts towards Ramaphosa in battle inside South Africa’s governing party

16 April 2021 - Susan Booysen

The National Executive Committee brought a crucial tilt in the factional balance of power towards Ramaphosa.

It appears, for the moment, that South African president Cyril Ramaphosa has won a key battle in the war for control of the governing African National Congress (ANC), of which he is also the head.

This became apparent after a highly charged recent meeting of the ANC’s national executive committee (NEC) – its highest decision-making body in between its five-yearly national conferences. The NEC brought a crucial tilt in the factional balance of power towards Ramaphosa. This matters because the post-elective conference fate of presidents of the ANC – who, because it is the majority party in the country, automatically become presidents of the country – is determined by the NEC.

The ANC has governed South Africa since apartheid ended in 1994. As far back as 1999 the party acknowledged the existence of corruption in its ranks. Since then corruption has become endemic. Few ANC leaders can claim to be perfectly clean.

Ramaphosa’s rise to power, from when he became ANC president in December 2017, and head of state in February 2018, offered South Africans hope that he would clean up the corruption. Indeed, he made promises to do so. But he has met with resistance, especially within the ANC.

This has pitted two ANC factions against each other: Ramaphosa’s (claiming the cleanup label), and the faction associated with former president Jacob Zuma, on whose watch corruption (by all indications) intensified and became so brazen it was equated to state capture.

Things came to a head at the 26-29 March virtual NEC meeting, where the controversial issue of sanctions against party members charged with corruption or other serious crimes was finalised. The party’s December 2017 ANC conference had resolved that such members should step down from their roles in the party and public structures. The March meeting adopted the guidelines and brought the ANC’s integrity commission into the NEC discussions, which was a precondition for implementation.

Power politics

The issue of stepping down is hotly contested, especially because it directly affects Ace Magashule, the party’s secretary-general. Magashule became the flag-bearer for the anti-Ramaphosa camp, both by default and personal ambition.

He and Ramaphosa are among the top six ANC office-bearers who were elected by marginal majorities in 2017.

Magashule went on to appropriate the label of a champion for ‘radical economic transformation’ (RET) that Zuma had used in the latter parts of his term as his claim to political authenticity within the ANC.

The RET faction frames itself as the true champion of the interests of the majority of South Africans, engaged in a battle against ‘white monopoly capital’, of which Ramaphosa and his associates are allegedly stooges.

Magashule’s political ambition is now threatened by charges of corruption.

Ramaphosa drew a line in the sand after the March NEC meeting. Backed by the NEC, he said Magashule was being given 30 days to step aside or face suspension and disciplinary action.

I argue that this represents a tilt in the balance of power in the party, albeit not an irreversible and uncontested gain. The Magashule camp continues to fight back, for now in more muted terms.

These dynamics within the ANC are a core theme in my new book, Precarious Power: Compliance and Discontent under Ramaphosa’s ANC. The analysis shows how the electorally dominant ANC is racked by the existence of discordant camps. It concludes that the party’s hold on political power is precarious, despite it towering over the opposition. The centre holds because of the leaders’ need to keep the party dominant and in command of the state.

Faustian pact

A root cause of the stalemate in the party is that Ramaphosa won the party presidency by a slender, opaque margin in 2017. To consolidate his position, he was forced to make uncomfortable compromises. He committed to party unity above all else. The phrase ‘unity is paramount’ became his common refrain.

But this was a Faustian pact with Magashule, who won the powerful position of secretary-general by an even narrower margin than Ramaphosa’s. The position means he effectively runs the organisation. It gives him a big influence over party campaigns and the ability to influence the composition of delegates to elective conferences, and the future leadership of the party.

Precarious Power explores events within the ANC and the country. It traces how and why Ramaphosa was forced to make piecemeal changes rather than pursue a more aggressive agenda to fix the country’s battered economy and stem widespread corruption as well as poor governance.

The book sets out how the unity pledge hobbles Ramaphosa’s dual presidency of the party and South Africa. It tracks developments in the ANC factional battles. It shows that the divisive issues were in essence corruption and the capture of the state for private gain – disguised as ideology.

In Ramaphosa’s three years plus at the ANC’s helm, the “radical economic transformation” faction thrived and exploited his weaknesses. These include his wealth and links to big capital, and the dirt within his cleanup faction.

Thwarting internal subversion

Recent events regarding how to deal with corruption charges illustrate the unity curse that’s beset Ramaphosa since he became party president.

He finally has enough NEC backing to confront those who have attached themselves to Zuma’s legacy of imagined radicalism and a bent towards corruption.

The NEC decisions taken in March are designed to close down the spaces in which the Magashule faction has operated. The NEC decided – among other things – that no ANC member should associate with the “radical economic transformation” faction, and that the party would not tolerate the use of its resources and premises for the faction’s activities.

What next

It’s too early to say whether Ramaphosa has abandoned his quest for unity above all else. But what are the chances that the ANC might split - yet again?

In my book I explore whether we may see a repeat of what happened in 2008 when some senior ANC figures broke away to form the Congress of the People. This was followed by the formation of the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) in 2013 by former leaders of the ANC Youth League who had been either expelled or suspended.

I argue that ownership of the ANC political brand remains critical. Thus, there is unlikely to be another split. The alternative is for those unhappy with Ramaphosa, or desperate to escape accountability for corruption, to continue to fight for control of the party from the inside.

Susan Booysen, Research Director at Mapungubwe Institute for Strategic Reflection (Mistra), Visiting Professor and Professor Emeritus, University of the Witwatersrand

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.