Modelling climate change – land use – surface hydrology interlinks in the northern Limpopo basin

The Global Change Institute invites you to its next monthly lunchtime seminar by Dr Auther Maviza.

Climate and spatio-temporal changes in landscape heterogeneities are consequential on surface hydrological processes and thus water security. In this regard, we present highlights from our study exploring the climate – land use – surface hydrology nexus in the Upper Mzingwane Subcatch- ment (UMS) nested in northern-most extent of the Limpopo basin.

The UMS generates 9.3% of total run-off into the Limpopo River, thus its great socio-economic significance. Geospatial-based techniques were used to quantify and model land use changes and present future climate scenarios using the Conformal Cubic Atmospheric Model (CCAM) datasets. Thereon, the Hydrologic Engineering Center's Geospatial Hydrologic Modelling System (HEC-GeoHMS)) was forced to simulate future stream discharge and thus water security scenarios within UMS. Results reveal historical woodland loss which is projected to continue into the mid-term future. A progressively warming climate in the UMS was noted while future precipitation trends show generally drying conditions, despite some uncertainty. 

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