Riding the 2019 national election prediction rollercoaster

Professor Pravesh Debba from the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR) will present this seminar.

The CSIR election night predictions are now a recognised feature of South African elections. This year, perhaps more than in past elections, the media widely reported the CSIR’s predictions alongside the recorded counts from the IEC and spokespeople for the CSIR were seen and heard on a number of television and radio shows. In this presentation we will share some of the insights regarding the “ups” and “downs” of delivering on-site, real-time, scientific outputs on a topic of national public interest. The presentation will include an overview of the statistical methodology behind the predictions; the considerations behind the construction of the clusters; and will also touch on the assumptions underlying the methodology. The prediction results from the 2019 elections will be presented as well as post-election analysis results that look at voter turnout and general trends or shifts in voting behaviour that occurred during the 2019 general elections. Furthermore some election analysis results from the not so predictable world of social media will be presented.

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